Where will they land? Predicted destinations for top Free Agents (Part 1)

The Red Sox want Jason Bay back. Jason Bay wants to be back. But, given Bay rejected their initial offer worth $60 million, will they get the money right to make it happen?

This offseason, there are very few star free agents on the market. Still, there is a lot of intrigue, and a lot of players looking to make an impact on a contending team. Here now are my predictions for where the top-five free agents will land in what should be another busy offseason in baseball.

1. Matt Holliday: The New York Mets aren’t getting any younger, and need to make a statement this offseason to get back into the winning circle. Holliday, a 29-year old outfielder who hits .330 with 30-plus homers, 100-plus rbi’s annually, would give them a force in the middle of their lineup. The Mets didn’t have a player with more than 12 homers last season, so they certainly need a long-term pick-me-up of Holliday’s caliber.

2. Jason Bay: The 31-year old outfielder who hit 36 homers and drove in 119 runs for the Boston Red Sox last year rejected their initial 4-year $60 million offer. The Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Angels, will be after him, but I expect the Canadian to re-sign with the Boston Red Sox. The two sides are apart as far as years and money are concerned, yet, there is no reason to believe that General Manager Theo Epstein won’t open his pocketbook and work out a deal favorable for both the Red Sox and Bay.

3. John Lackey: The Los Angeles Angels can’t afford to let him go, but they can’t afford him. He’s the best pitcher on the open market, and was their ace. He’s 31 years old, has had elbow troubles in the past, and will likely want a 5-6 year deal worth more than the $82.5 million, money he will probably get, despite his age and injury history. He’s out of their price range, as they have only $12 million they can donate annually this offseason. I expect the Angels to try and woo him to come back for less, but I don’t believe he will settle. The Washington Nationals are interested. So are the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, and possibly the Seattle Mariners. Where will he end up? I think the Mariners might swoop in and snag him in their effort to challenge his former team in the American League West.

4. Chone Figgins: The Angels will have to choose either Lackey or Figgins this offseason. As previously said, Lackey may be too pricey. But Figgins, their third baseman who had a career-high .395 On-Base Percentage last season and fits Mike Scioscia’s system perfectly, is too important to their success to leave. Other teams have expressed interest, but Figgins will come relatively inexpensive, and should fit in the Angels budget. Look for General Manager Arte Moreno to lock up the 31-year old for 4-5 years at $10 million annually.

5. Randy Wolf: It’s a down year free-agent-wise if Wolf is fifth. He had a career year this past season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning 11 games with a 3.23 ERA, while allowing only 178 hits in 214 1/3 innings. But, he’s 33 years old, allowed 24 home-runs, and struck out 160, meaning he’s a contact pitcher. The fact that he doesn’t strikeout many and allows a high amount of home-runs should hurt his chances of getting a 4-5 year deal, but if he stays in the National League, he should continue to be a very dependable pitcher. The New York Mets, who regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf during last year’s offseason, need to add some stability behind Johan Santana in the rotation, and Wolf, at 3-years, $30 million, could give them that.

A team’s record doesn’t matter: Lincecum, Greinke win Cy Youngs

San Francisco Giants' Tim Lincecum became only the fifteenth pitcher in history to win the Cy Young award twice.

The St. Louis Cardinals made the playoffs in large part because of the two-headed monster atop their rotation: Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright won 19 games with a 2.63 ERA in 233 innings, and Carpenter won 17 games with a 2.24 ERA. Their statistics were unbelievable, and they would have been one-two in the race if not for San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum.

Lincecum, who won the Cy Young award in 2008 by winning 18 games, touting a 2.62 ERA, and, in 227 innings, allowing only 182 hits and 10 home-runs while striking out 265 batters, was in the mix to repeat as winner. The Giants missed out on the playoffs, but finished strong and won 88 games, sixteen more than in 2008. Lincecum was a big reason for the improvement, anchoring their very successful rotation by going 17-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 225 1/3 innings. Even more remarkable than his record and ERA, was that he allowed an amazingly low amount of hits, 168, home-runs, 11, and walks, 68, while striking out the opposition 261 times.

So, it was a three-horse race between Wainwright, Carpenter, and Lincecum. Carpenter and Wainwright had more wins, forming a two-headed monster. Lincecum had a sidekick as well: Matt Cain won 14 games and had a 2.89 ERA. He wasn’t flying solo, therefore making the decision a toss-up. The voters, made up of sportswriters around the country, voted in a tight-knit fashion, expectedly so considering the similarity in statistics and impact. Who did the majority pick? The Freak, also known as Tiny Tim.

Lincecum, who had a microscopic WHIP (Walks + Hits/Inning Pitched) of 1.05, had 10 first place votes, less than Wainwright’s 12. But, what won it for him was the substantial number of second place votes, which gave him 100 points overall, barely beating Carpenter’s 94, and Wainwright’s 90. Though the voters’ indecision in choosing between Carpenter and Wainwright played a role in Lincecum taking home the award, there is no doubt the 25-year old, 5′9″ Washington-native deserved the hardware for the second straight year.

Zack Greinke convincingly won the American League Cy Young award, acquiring 25 of 28 first-place votes.

In the American League, another pitcher won deservedly on a non-playoff team: the Kansas City Royals Zack Greinke. His story is well-documented, but though I presume it had little to do with the 26-year old winning the award, it made his victory that much more remarkable. His statistics spoke for themselves, as he won 16 games with a dominating 2.16 ERA. He had 6 complete games, 2 shutouts, struck out 242 in 229 1/3 innings, relinquished only 11 homers and 51 walks, and had a 1.07 WHIP. His numbers were very similar to Lincecum’s, and he also won without leading the league in wins.

In fact, he was seventh in that category. CC Sabathia of the World Series-winning New York Yankees led the league with 19 victories, tying the Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez and Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander; Toronto’s Roy Halladay, Boston’s Josh Beckett, and Texas’s Scott Feldman each tallied 17 wins. Clearly, as in Lincecum’s case, a teams’ record doesn’t matter, as the Royals finished last in the American League Central with 65 wins and 97 losses, nor do the victories they themselves accumulate.

Lincecum’s win was surprising at first glance, given the year both Wainwright and Carpenter had. So was Greinke’s victory in some respects. But though they somewhat flew under my radar, the writers did their job and truly picked both leagues best pitchers over the course of the season; and what a season Tiny Tim and Greinke had.

Deemed not ready for NBA, Jennings drops 55 on Warriors

Milwaukee Bucks rookie point guard Brandon Jennings went crazy against the Golden State Warriors, dropping 55 points in victory, including 29 in the third quarter alone. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

Brandon Jennings didn’t want to go to college. He believed that if he was going to play, it would be for a paycheck, so, unable to enter the draft due to the age restrictions, the highly touted point guard became the first player to forgo college and make the leap from high school to professional European basketball. In making the decision to sign a one-year contract with Italian club Lottomatica Roma, the Oak Hill Academy star who won every major player of the year award as a senior believed he would see a substantial amount of action, thereby increasing his notoriety for the following year’s NBA Draft.

But things didn’t go as planned, and Jennings spent a majority of the season riding the bench. When he did play, he wasn’t all too successful, averaging 5 points, 2 rebounds, and one assist in 27 games while shooting just 35 percent from the field and 20 percent from three-point land.

His struggles on the European stage would presumably hurt his draft status, but his lowly statistics did no such thing. Recognizing the potential, the Milwaukeee Bucks selected the skinny 6′1″ 20-year old with the tenth overall selection. Milwaukee thought enough of his talent not only to make him a top-ten pick, but to let 23-year old starting point guard Ramon Sessions leave via free agency. The job was Jennings’, whether he was ready to take the reins or not.

It appeared he wasn’t. He averaged a satisfactory 10 points and 5 assists during the preseason, but was woefully inconsistent, scoring three points and dishing one assists one game and then scoring ten and racking up 12 assists the next. He had plenty of skeptics, and many deemed after the former performance that he simply wasn’t able to play in the NBA just yet. But boy has he proved them wrong.

Jennings narrowly missed out on a triple-double in his regular season debut against the Philadelphia 76ers. He scored 17 points, grabbed nine rebounds, and handed out nine assists, one rebound and one assist short of becoming the first player since Oscar Robertson to post a triple-double in his first game. To prove this performance wasn’t a fluke, he scored 24 points the following night against the Detroit Pistons, and 25 points three days later against the Chicago Bulls.

He struggled in his fourth game, posting a line similar to that in the preseason, scoring 9 points on 4-16 shooting while compiling just three assists in 27 minutes. He has since bounced back from this mediocre performance in a big way. He scored 17 points against the New York Knicks, one of nine teams that passed up his services, and then exploded for 32 points against a horrible defensive Denver Nuggets team to go along with 9 assists.

He played an even worse defensive team last night, facing a Golden State Warriors team that, coached by Don Nelson, is currently in disarray. Nelson grooms his players to be offensively oriented; they don’t have a single player that takes pride in defensive intensity, or playing defense at all. Playing Golden State, which came in allowing 110 points per game, Jennings went nuts on Milwaukee’s home-court.

He didn’t score in the first quarter, which makes his feat that much more remarkable. He was 0-3 shooting with a turnover. Then, beginning a layup to begin Milwaukee’s second quarter, he started to heat up. Fellow rookie Stephen Curry had the assignment of guarding him, and though he blocked his shot on the next possession and forced a missed jumper a minute later, his defense would soon wane.

Jennings hit a three-pointer three minutes after making a free-throw, giving him six points in 14 minutes. He reached double figures by halftime, skying for a tip-in and a dunk to give him ten points at intermission. He had a quiet first half, and his Bucks were down by eight. There was no sign that he would be in for a big night, that was until shots starting falling in the third quarter.

He drained a 16-footer over Curry with two minutes gone by, cutting a deficit that reached ten back down to eight. He hit another jumper, dwindling the margin to seven, and a three-pointer that whittled it to six. A possession later, he made it a four-point game by crossing over Monta Ellis and driving in for a layup. He cut the Warriors lead to three with a three-pointer, to one with a layup, tied it with a free-throw, grabbed the lead with a mid-range jumper, and extended the Bucks advantage to five with his fourth three-pointer. In the quarter’s first eight minutes, he amounted 20 points, picking Golden State apart for uncovered jumper after jumper and layup after layup. He was just getting warm, too.

He became a point guard for a few possessions, finding guard Charlie Bell and center Andrew Bogut for layups, before harkening back to the player who averaged 32 points per game in his high school career. With blazing quickness and the ability to stop on a dime, he continued his magnificent period, exploding in for a layup, pulling up for a floater in the lane, canning a long three-pointer from the top of the key, then a jumper from the angle. In the third quarter, Jennings scored an incredible 29 points. He made 12-13 shots, including 4-5 three-pointers. With this, his first half was a distant memory. He now had 39 points for the game, with another breathtaking quarter ahead of him.

His first points of the final period were free-throws, coming with nine and a half minutes remaining, putting him over the 40-point plateau. In spite of his scoring outburst, a jumper by Ellis gave the Warriors a 110-109 lead with just under four minutes left. Jennings said enough is enough and started his late surge. A nine-foot, high arching jumper regained the lead for Milwaukee, and a three-pointer without a defender within five feet increased the margin to a slim two. He made Golden State’s deficit six with a mid-range jumper, and then six again, thrusting the dagger deep in the Warriors heart by hitting his seventh and final three-pointer with 34 seconds left, icing a magical win for the Bucks.

He hit two free-throws with ten seconds left, creating the final margin of 129-125 in Milwaukee’s favor. Those two free-throws gave him 55 points, and an amazing 45 in the second half. In all, he made 21-34 field goals, 7-8 three-pointers, 6-8 free-throws, and still found time to dish five assists. His performance, in front of a raucous crowd of 15,000, was beyond belief, and overwhelmingly silenced every critic who thought he was nowhere near ready for the NBA, a league that he has dominated during his young career.

Red Sox make a few moves; Trade Rumors around the Majors

The Philadelphia Phillies need a third baseman. Look no further than speedy Chone Figgins, a hitting machine who dazzled with the Anaheim Angels and is now a free-agent.

The Boston Red Sox were busy to begin the offseason, acquiring outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins, and remained busy in their effort to build a championship-caliber team. General Manager Theo Epstein restructured Tim Wakefield’s deal, replacing a $4 million team option for 2010 with a two-year contract for the 43-year old knuckleballer worth a guaranteed $7 million. He also intelligently picked up the $7 million team option on catcher Victor Martinez. Then, he made another wise move, declining their $5 million team option on over-the-hill captain and catcher Jason Varitek.

The re-signing of Wakefield gives Boston two more years of dependability at the back-end of their rotation. Having a knuckleballer is a hit-or-miss proposition; he will get hit hard, then be unhittable. But for the most part, he pitches deep into games, allows a minimal amount of runs, and keeps the Red Sox in contention, which are the reasons why they have so much faith in the longest tenured member of the team.

His re-signing means either the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation is his. This leaves Boston with a formidable five-man rotation: Josh Beckett in a contract year, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is looking to rebound after an injury-plagued 2009, young Clay Buchholz, and Wakefield. If there is one drawback to the re-signing of Wakefield, however, it doesn’t give Boston the opportunity to sign a free agent pitcher. Unless they plan on using him just in long relief or for spot-starts, or unless they plan on using a 6-man rotation, they can’t pursue the likes of Rich Harden.

Harden would come relatively cheap solely because of his injury history. He has a world of talent in his right arm, but because of recurring arm injuries or other such setbacks he has had, there is no way to guesstimate how man starts he could make; he could make ten and spend the majority of the season on the shelf, or he could make thirty and contend for the Cy Young. If I was at the controls, I’d take the risk, considering what the 27-year old could do if injury-free.

Wakefield has had severe back problems throughout the latter stages of his career, so given that he isn’t a sure-thing either, the Harden possibility becomes much more plausible. I would rather see the Red Sox sign Harden for $7 million than have to commit an obscene amount of money t0 a star on the market, such as John Lackey, who would command at least a  five-year deal worth upwards of $80 million.

Picking up Matinez’s option is an obvious decision, as the 30-year old catcher hit .336 with a .405 on-base percentage to compliment his 8 homers and 41 rbi’s in 56 games with the Red Sox after being acquired at the July 31st trade deadline. He fit in immediately and gave Boston the power bat and dependability they were lacking from the catcher position.

Varitek was the catcher, but there was a reason why the Red Sox declined their team option. The captain hit just .209 last season, an offensive liability the team couldn’t afford to use on a daily basis; hence the acquisition of Martinez. The title of “Captain” carried a lot of weight the year prior and that stature along with the way he handled the pitching staff was the reason Boston stuck with him regularly until the Martinez trade. But they felt it was time to move on, and rightfully so, despite the overwhelming impact he had made to earn the “Captain” title.

He can still return, however, but it is his choice. The Red Sox declined a $5 million team option, clearly gesturing it was time to part ways, but he can excercise a $3 million player option in order to remain. Reports were as of Sunday night that he would do so and return, but Epstein informed the media on Monday that Varitek had not yet indeed picked up the option. According to Sports Illustrated Jon Heyman, Varitek will discuss the option with the devil of the Agent world, Scott Boras, his representative.

In other offseason news, The Philadelphia Phillies, instead of resuming talks of a possible trade for Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, will focus on bulking their bullpen and finding a more suitable option at third base than Pedro Feliz. Feliz, who was serviceable, could return, but the team is seriously pursuing Chone Figgins to man the hot corner, according to Heyman.

Figgins, formerly of the Anaheim Angels (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, if you prefer), is an interesting target by Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr.. Despite struggling in the playoffs, the 31-year old is a very good hitter, and is extremely fast. He would give the Phillies three leadoff types, as Heyman mentioned: Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, a duo that sits atop their lineup, are built around speed, and are relatively light-hitting. This is not to say that Figgins would be a bad signing. I think it would be excellent, given their crop of power hitters–Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth. Adding Figgins would bolster their offense considerably, and improve upon an already stellar power-speed combination.

Moving onto the team the Phillies lost to in the World Series, the New York Yankees have had internal discussions about bringing all three of their big free-agents back: outfielder Johnny Damon, who was a hitting machine all season long and throughout the playoffs, designated hitter Hideki Matsui, who won the World Series MVP, and pitcher Andy Pettitte, who won four of his five starts during the postseason. Re-signing all three would be wise for the World Series champions, not only because all three are very valuable to their success, but also because this might mean they–for once–aren’t looking to make a big offseason splash.

They still could; it’s the Yankees. Time will tell, as the offseason has just begun. Who knows what it is on the horizon, especially for the teams in Boston, Philly, and the Bronx.

Let the Offseason begin: Red Sox steal Hermida from Marlins

The Boston Red Sox hope they struck gold in acquiring Jeremy Hermida, who quite possibly may have been non-tendered by the Florida Marlins at month's end if not for the trade.

The Major League Baseball season began on April 5th. The season ended on November 4th with the New York Yankees popping champagne in celebration. That’s a span of seven months, from late spring to mid-fall. It was long, too long. But now it’s over. The offseason has begun.

The Trade Season started with a bang. The Boston Red Sox front office, having watched arch-rival New York finish off Philadelphia, decided to make a move, a sensible one at that. Before they traded Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Red Sox inquired about a three-way deal that would land them Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida. That proposal didn’t gain any traction, and Hermida stayed with the Marlins, but despite missing out on his services, Boston remained infatuated with him and his potential, hoping he would someday be part of their quest for a World Series championship.

That someday was today. In need of outfield depth, General Manager Theo Epstein traded the organization’s 44th and 45th prospects, lefthanded pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, to Florida for Hermida, who is only 25 years old. Hermida, a 6′3″, 200-pounder, is a former top prospect in the Marlins system, and in nearly 2,000 career appearances, has put up underwhelming numbers considering his hype: .265 batting average, 57 homers, and 210 rbi’s in 516 games.

Though he has had a disappointing first few years in the majors, disappointing enough for the Marlins to give up on him, the Red Sox believe a bright future is ahead. Epstein, upon making the trade, said “He hasn’t fulfilled his potential yet. We acquired him today to see if he can fulfill that potential.” Jones and Alvarez were a small price to pay for a low-risk player who could pay immense dividends in Boston. He has a fluid swing, plate discipline, and though he doesn’t hit for a substantial amount of power, the short porch in right field at Fenway Park, as well as the Green Monster in left, could go along ways to increase his production.

Designated hitter David Ortiz doesn’t have much left in the tank. Third baseman Mike Lowell can still hit, but a hip injury has slowed him considerably. Their lineup is getting old, and has players on the decline, so a young fresh face could do wonders for their wherewithal, especially if he succeeds as the Marlins once believed he could.

Boston seems keen on re-signing left-fielder Jason Bay, who, despite striking out nearly a third of the time last season, put up huge numbers with the team. This would be a smart move, and would allow the Red Sox to work Hermida into the system, give him some spot starts, see what he’s made of, and then give him the starting job in right-field once J.D. Drew’s contract runs out after the 2011 season.

Hermida welcomed the change in scenery:

“The change of scenery will be good for me,” he said. “Boston has a lot of older guys who can teach me about the game and we can talk hitting. I know Mike Lowell pretty well and I played with Josh (Beckett) a little. This is a great thing for me.”

“I feel rejuvenated. I had a feeling I’d be traded and going to Boston is better than I could have expected.”

The Red Sox acquired him on a whim, taking a risk that this “can’t miss” prospect that the Marlins were tired of waiting on turns into something. Having this optimism is a good start for the kid. Boston may have just found a diamond in the rough.