What happened and what’s next? Chronicling Boston’s monumental collapse

Jon Lester, with the reaction that sums up Boston's nightmarish September. (Reuters/Joe Giza)

There are multiple outlets reporting that Terry Francona may be out as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. The Chicago Sun Times reports that Francona wants to leave, desiring Boston not to pick up his options for next year.

Just yesterday, General Manager Theo Epstein said nobody blames Francona for the team’s horrendous September, as documented by The Boston Globe:

“We take full responsibility for what happened, all of us, but collectively it was a failure, and I’m the general manager, so I take more responsibility than anybody, but I know we don’t believe in scapegoats, and in particular no one blames Tito for what happened in September,” Epstein said. “We all failed collectively.”

Francona, if you believe “sources”, thinks it’s on him and thinks it would be best to leave. What a mistake. And what a huge blow losing him would be.

The team entered September with a half game lead atop the AL East and a nine game advantage over the Tampa Bay Rays. They were 83-52, with the best winning percentage in the American League and second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in all of baseball.

Considering the team was equipped with a potent offense and two aces atop their rotation, it was widely believed they would make the playoffs. They may lose the AL East, but certainly the Wild Card was in their back pocket. Then the wheels completely fell off.

In blowing a ninth-inning lead Wednesday night and eventually losing to the Baltimore Orioles, Boston notched its 20th loss of the month to miss the playoffs. No Red Sox team in the franchise’s long history had ever lost 20 games in the season’s final month.

So, what happened to turn the tables so quickly? At the root of Boston’s collapse was its dreadful starting pitching. Over the course of the month, and none of eight Francona started had an ERA below 5.25. In 134 innings pitched, they combined to allow an incredible 161 hits, 101 runs, 21 homers, and 68 walks. They pitched only 55 percent of an average nine-inning game. Their combined record was 4-13.

It’s not surprising, then, that Boston didn’t win a single series; they only one game in all but one–and that was a Rays sweep. They didn’t win two games in a row. In their first four losses of September they were outscored by 20 runs. Overall in the month, they were outscored by 72 runs in losses. In 16 of these losses, they fell behind to start, forced to constantly play catch-up. And when they overtook their opponent, that lead was so often lost.

The offense was problematic in certain situations, unable to take advantage of many opportunities, but overall the Red Sox hit very well in September. They batted .280 as a team, with a .342 On-Base-Percentage. They scored the third-most runs in the majors over this span, and had the third-most hits. They had five regulars hit over .300, led by Marco Scutaro, who hit .387 with 12 doubles and 21 rbi’s. MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury was the other to amass 21 rbi’s. He also hit a team-high eight homers, scored a team-high 22 runs, and had a .358 batting average. Dustin Pedroia was also superb.

Despite their performances, it is difficult to focus on the bright spots when the team struggles to such a horrific conclusion. And considering how forgettable the final month was for the Red Sox, a team with the highest expectations, many changes could me made.

If Francona does depart, there might be an emotion-driven domino effect. David Ortiz’s contract is up. So is Jonathan Paplebon’s. Boston could very well let both walk, but they shouldn’t. The two have been very key to the team’s success. Fans had reason to cringe at the sight of Daniel Bard this month, and he doesn’t seem ready to take over the closer’s role. He’s more suited right now as the main set-up man, and what’s the harm in having the one-two punch of him and Papelbon as the bullpen’s back-end for years to come? Ortiz came two homers and four rbi’s shy of 30 homers and 100 rbi’s. There is a lot left in his tank, and his age indicates a lengthy contract isn’t in the cards. They need his bat in the lineup, and can have him back at an affordable price.

They also need Scutaro’s. His stellar September gave him a career-high .299 batting average overall. His slugging percentage was also a career-high, and he also had a respectable .358 on base percentage. The team can exercise a $6 million option if they want to retain his services, and doing so would be extremely wise. He has been excellent defensively, and though he is 35 he showed no signs of slowing down. If anything, he’s speeding up.

Francona, on the other hand, appears to want to put on the breaks and get out of Boston’s car. Maybe he doesn’t want to deal with the pressure and stress that comes with managing the Red Sox. Maybe he wants a change in scenery. Maybe he thinks Boston is better off without him. They aren’t.

In the heat of the moment, overreacting is natural from a fan’s, player’s, manager’s, and front office personnel’s perspective. How could it not be? The Red Sox worked their butts off for five months only to crumble in the season’s sixth. But acting upon those emotions is not the answer. Opponents played them extremely tough, proving anyone can beat anyone on any given night. What happened isn’t the end of the world.

And the collapse isn’t a reason to lose faith in the Red Sox. Teams lose some, teams win some. Teams get in a funk they can’t get out of, and teams get on hot streak that don’t have an end in sight. It’s all part of a tumultuous game, a great game that’s worth going through momentary depression. And for Boston, there is always another season. There will always be another season. And, when the next one comes around, they will put a contending team on the field–with or without Francona–determined to right past wrongs.

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