Baseball is upon us: Projected Standings, Awards, playoff matchups, and World Series prediction
Twenty year old top prospect Jason Heyward, who was named the starting rightfielder by the Atlanta Braves, will make some noise this season as will his team.
With the improvements made by the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, and Atlanta Braves, more teams than ever before will contend for the playoffs. But only eight teams can play baseball in October.
Here now are my projected standings for the upcoming 2010 season that should be as competitive and thrilling as ever.
American League East:
Boston Red Sox: 95-67
New York Yankees: 94-68
Tampa Bay Rays: 89-73
Baltimore Orioles: 82-80
Toronto Blue Jays: 75-87
Joe Mauer, fresh off signing a 8-year contract extension, will lead the Twins into the playoffs.
American League Central:
Minnesota Twins: 90-72
Chicago White Sox: 87-75
Detroit Tigers: 85-77
Cleveland Indians: 70-92
Kansas City Royals: 68-94
American League West:
Texas Rangers: 90-76
Seattle Mariners: 89-77
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 87-79
Oakland Athletics: 78–84
–Wild Card: New York Yankees
National League East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 95-67
Atlanta Braves: 90-72
Florida Marlins: 88-74
New York Mets: 80-82
Washington Nationals: 77-85
Can another Cy Young-worthy season by Tiny Tim Lincecum lead the improved Giants into the playoffs? Time will tell.
National League Central:
St. Louis Cardinals: 88-74
Cincinnati Reds: 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers: 84-78
Chicago Cubs: 81-79
Pittsburgh Pirates: 81-81
Houston Astros: 75-87
National League West:
San Francisco Giants: 87-75
Los Angeles Dodgers: 85-77
Colorado Rockies: 84-78
Arizona Diamondbacks: 78-84
San Diego Padres: 72-90
–Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
Awards for Each League
American League:
MVP: Joe Mauer, Twins
CY Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz, relief pitcher, Rangers
Comeback Player of the Year: Grady Sizemore, Indians center fielder
With Matt holliday flanking him, Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols will be as dangerous as ever.
National League:
MVP: Albert Pujols, first baseman, Cardinals
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Braves rightfielder
Comeback Player of the Year: Chipper Jones, Braves third baseman
Playoff Predictions:
–American League Division Series–
Red Sox over Rangers in six games
Twins over Yankees in seven games
–National League Division Series—
Phillies over Giants in seven games
Cardinals over Braves in seven games
–American League Championship Series–
Red Sox over Yankees in seven games
–National League Championship Series–
Phillies over Cardinals in six games
World Series:
Phillies over Red Sox in seven games
American League East:
New York Yankees: 100-62
Tampa Bay Rays: 93-69
Boston Red Sox: 78-84
Baltimore Orioles: 76-86
Toronto Blue Jays: 60-102
American League Central:
Chicago White Sox: 92-70
Detroit Tigers: 87-75
Kansas City Royals: 81-81
Minnesota Twins: 80-82
Cleveland Indians: 62-100
Kansas City Royals: 68-94
American League West:
Seattle Mariners: 92-70
Texas Rangers: 90-76
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 85-77
Oakland Athletics: 72–90
–Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
National League East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 90-72
Atlanta Braves: 88-74
Florida Marlins: 80-82
Washington Nationals: 77-85
New York Mets: 72-90
National League Central:
Chicago Cubs: 89-73
Cincinnati Reds: 88-74
Milwaukee Brewers: 87-75
St. Louis Cardinals: 86-76
Pittsburgh Pirates: 81-81
Houston Astros: 62-100
National League West:
San Francisco Giants: 93-69
Los Angeles Dodgers: 90-72
Colorado Rockies: 88-74
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70-92
San Diego Padres: 60-102
Red Sox are sellers, not buyers, at the deadline, and get a monster haul from Texas who overpays to make a playoff run that fails. Red Sox also offer to pay the remaining salary on all expiring contracts in return for blue chip prospects. The return on Beckett and JD Drew position them to complete their roster overhaul with the pickup of Prince Fielder in November, making them a lock for the playoffs and a championship contender for the following 5 years.
Trey Hillman gets serious consideration for manager of the year, but KC wilts in August because of lack of depth.
Picking rookie the award winners is a crapshoot, but I will take A-Rod and King Felix, and rookie of the year Wade Davis.
Yankees over Tampa in 6.
In the NL the big story is the Giants and their dominant pitching, and how they also spend the money to pick up a big hitter at the deadline to make a run at the title, and in the course take over the NL West for good, and become the team to beat in the NL for the foreseeable future.
Also, the Cubs eek out an extremely tight race in the central, as Dusty Baker makes chicken salad out of chicken shit and earns manager of the year consideration.
Chase Utley and Tim Linscum win the awards. Steve Strassburg breathes life into a franchise and wins rookie of the year after his June call up to delay his arbitration eligibility.
Dodgers over Giants in 7, as Joe Torre steals the series from Bruce Bochy in a shocker, but it still doesn’t change the fact that the balance of power has shifted for good.
Yankees over Dodgers in 5 in the World Series.
78-84????????????? That’s a joke. I do like a majority of your other picks, especially the Giants, who, as you know by reading my article, I also like.
I really could see the Tigers doing what you think, but I don’t know if they have enough pitching.
The Cubs could win the Central, but you know deep down the Baseball Gods won’t let that happen.
The NL Central will be very intriguing. A lot of good teams fighting for one, maybe two spots.
I can see why you picked Tampa. They have great pitching and a much-improved offense. With Pena and Crawford gone after the year, this is their year to really do something.
Atlanta could give the Phillies a serious run, but I think Haladay will just destroy the NL and with the rest of their rotation and their lineup, they will be tough to beat.
Overall, pretty solid picks. I’m not surprised by your Red Sox projection or your World Series winner at all.
It isn’t so much that I like the Tigers, it is more that I think the loss of Nathan will be devastating, and suddenly all at once the personnel losses over the past few years will come home to roost, and Gardinhire will no longer be able to do it with smoke and mirrors anymore. I really like the White Sox, and the only thing that can get in their own way is their own manager.
As for the NL Central, I have 3 games separating 4 teams. It will be a dogfight amongst flawed teams, and because they all beat each other up, that will ensure that the wildcard does not come out of the division.
Atlanta will be who everyone is pulling for because of Bobby Cox, and they’ll hang around as they overachieve and the Phillies underachieve, but it won’t be enough to get to the wire. Look for Strassburg to come up one day after the arbitration eligibility deadline and put up numbers with a bad team like Steve Carlton did in the 70s with bad teams.
As for the AL East the number for the Red Sox is deceiving. What I think they will do is in the last week of July decide, we have all the tickets sold anyway, so why go through the motions with players we aren’t bringing back and finish 3 games out of the wildcard. I think they get a huge score out of Texas who overpays for Beckett, and I also think they move JD Drew getting a blue chip prospect that can start somewhere next year, and they also get young blue chip pitching for Ellsbury which will help out next year. All the other expiring contracts will go to the first taker coming forward, with the Red Sox paying salary just looking for the best possible player they can develop in return. I think they move V-Mart as they can do better for less, and therefore they will not sign him.
Tampa has a closer and that is what they have been missing. Wade Davis is the real deal, and I think they will actually add at the deadline because they know they will never keep Crawford, and probably will lose Pena, so they have to go for it now.
The Giants will get beat in the playoffs this year, but as I spoke about last year to you, with the other ownership situations in their division, the Giants take over the division for the foreseeable future. Going forward, they will be able to basically print playoff tickets on opening day,and also going forward they will be the hands down team to beat in the National League, nobody else will be in the same class. Like the Yankees, they will be focused on winning the title, not the division, and with that pitching, and in that city, that is the kind of situation that other guys in baseball look at and say to their agents, I’d take a little less money and 1 less year on the deal to get a situation like that.
I understand why you picked the Tigers. Nathan’s a big part of the Twins and his absence will hurt considerably. But I they will have enough grit and offensive power to pull out the division.
You are right, the NL Central will be a dogfight. It’s going to be incredible to watch, especially considering the Reds and Cubs buildup.
Your Giants pick is a great one, and you were spot on last year when you predicted they would take over the division. They are going to make some noise this year for sure.
I’ve heard Boston’s not going to give Beckett five years, which makes that situation a sticky one. I could see them trading Drew given they have Reddick. And you already know my feelings on Ellsbury.
Beckett will be ready opening night, that’s for sure.
Boston was never going to resign him, and once he starts the season, there is no turning back, and why would he come back for less than Lackey got, when he is younger and the better pitcher, and when he can get more elsewhere.
Drew will be a nice pickup for a contender, and for a contender, it is worth it to give up a blue chip prospect, at least a non pitcher, when Boston is paying the salary, and for Boston it makes sense, because they got the money budgeted, and he wasn’t coming back anyway.
Same applies to V-Mart, he is a good hitter, but that is all he is, and they don’t want to tie up big money long term for a DH type, and they could move him in the same kind of deal for the right price.
I still see them moving Ellsbury, it just has to be the right package, and especially if it is pitching, you got to do it, because if your Boston, with guys already in the player development pipeline and the ability to always buy hitters in the open market, when you can get someone to overpay out of need, you do it, because in the end you come out ahead.
As for the Giants, I really think this season they are going to emerge, and a year from now people are going to be talking about them being the type of team that can win multiple championships over the following few years, because they will be a lock to win the division on opening day, and favorite to make it to the World Series.
I don’t think they will get there this year, I think in the playoffs Joe Torre will teach them there is a difference between regular season baseball and playoff baseball, but this is the swan song for both the Dodgers and the Phillies, the Mets and Cubs are both in varying degrees of disarray, the Cardinals are in decline, so going forward the Giants are positioned to dominate the National League for the better part of the coming decade.
You are correct, maybe about all three. Clearly they aren’t willing to commit to Beckett. Drew could be trade bait, and Boston could get something solid in return, but I see them keeping Martinez with Mauer now signed by the Twins.
We’ll see about your Giants pick. I like it!
As far a V-Mart goes, he is a great hitter but a defensive liability.
There is just no way he can be a starting catcher on a playoff team, he is basically the second coming of Mike Piazza, and I think Boston wants someone who can take care of business behind the dish and hit in the bottom third of the order.
I think they will get Saltalamachia from Texas, whose stock is down right now, as part of the Beckett deal, along with pitching, allot of pitching.
In the end, Boston would rather play Youklis at first, remember they have a very affordable team option on Beltre for next year, and if they move V-Mart at the deadline they will get more in return that Justin Masterson who they gave up to get him.
Saltalamacchia, Feliz, and Derrick Holland for Beckett. Do it, Theo!
VMart would get much more than Masterson, you are right.
You may have some off-the-wall notions sometimes ((like the 78-84 prediction), but here you make a ton of sense.
They won’t be a sub .500 team at the deadline, they may even be as much as 10 games over, but looking up at Tampa for the Wildcard. I doubt a whole ten games over, because of their lack of offense, but it is possible and they will be over .500 when they make their moves, and have two months of playing more younger players, and that is where they take a bit of a slide, especially in September where they just declare it open competition for jobs and results become secondary.
So you are saying they will get worse as the season wears on? They have one of, if not the best pitching staff in baseball and capable and experienced hitters. And you don’t think they will at least be in the Wild Card race until the end?
It will, however, be interesting to see how and when they work in guys like Tazawa, Kelly, Anderson, and Iglesias into the fold. If they do in fact really struggle this year and throw in the towel, It would be intriguing to see if they decide to start the MLB service clocks on some of their prospects this season.
What I am saying is that the Yankees and the Rays will pull away from them. They very well may at the time have a record equal or better than the central leaders, perhaps even better than the west leaders, but that won’t matter, because the whole race from their standpoint will be in front of them in the east.
At that point, they have a decision to make.
So come July, if and when they are 5 games or more behind the Rays for the Wildcard, what do they do?
Do they decide to spend and make a pickup? Based on recent history, plus the fact that they have resolved to hold onto all of their prospects, I say no. Sure they went out and got V-Mart last year, but they HAD to get a catcher because Varitek was done, and besides in respect to their other young pitchers, they didn’t project Masterson as being more than a long reliever for them.
I think they do the smart thing, and since they have for 2 years been gearing towards clearing all this dead money off their payroll and reloading, they got the opportunity to really get a jump on things, and besides, 5 games back or more, when you are chasing a superior team, is a long shot, and they got the tickets sold for the rest of the season anyway, and if you make the right deals, it can be the difference between being a championship contender and a playoff contender in 2011.
Especially if you deal Beckett, because Beckett is the kind of guy a contender can put at the top of the rotation and make a run for a championship, especially in the wide open National League, so someone will grossly overpay, and Beckett isn’t coming back anyway, so why not get everything.
JD Drew and or V-Mart will also each yield blue chip prospects, guys that you can count on at least contributing if not more. Lowell and Ortiz will be available in waiver deals in August.
Tazawaa hurt his arm, he is up in Alabama seeing Dr. Andrews. Anderson is a bust. Kelly might be good, I actually saw him pitch against the Orioles, he did well, but he only has half a season as a pitcher in the minors, so he is probably 2 years away, in any event, at least more than one year away.
As for Iglesias, I don’t know who he is and he doesn’t show up on…
http://www.firstinning.com
Drew and Martinez could bring a lot in return, especially if the team isn’t confident in their farm system.
Iglesias is the shortstop of their future. He’s played extremely well in Spring Training. Pretty solid bat, great Omar Vizquel-esque glove.
His stats: http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=578428