Baseball is back! AL East preview: Boston Red Sox
David Ortiz is looking to bounce back from a horrible 2009 season for the Boston Red Sox, a team equipped for a title run.
The New York Yankees look to repeat as World Champions in 2010, but the Boston Red Sox, as always, will be a talented hurdle and–along other teams in the American League East as well as those West and Central– will attempt to thwart their quest for back-to-back titles.
Boston
The Red Sox could have re-signed outfielder Jason Bay or targeted fellow power-hitter Matt Holliday. They chose to go in a different route, signing 36-year old Mike Cameron, a defensive stalwart and a solid hitter. He has lost a step or two, but he is still very athletic and in tip-top shape. Signing Cameron, who had only four errors last season, started a trend.
Boston then signed shortstop Marco Scutaro, an excellent defensive player formerly of the Blue Jays. Like Cameron, he’s not the best of hitters, but he can handle the bat enough to produce efficiently. A career .260 hitter entering this past season, the now 34-year old Scutaro had his best offensive year in 2009, batting .280 with 12 homers, 60 rbi’s, and an impressive .379 on-base percentage. To compliment his offense, he only committed eight errors.
The Red Sox weren’t done stocking up defensively, signing third baseman Adrian Beltre, who had an awful 2009 offensively. Though his power numbers have drastically dropped, his reputation as a slick fielder made him enticing to Boston. And, as with Cameron and Scutaro, Boston’s front office is confident his offensive production will pick up with the Green Monster in left and the open space in center and right.
Though Fenway Park is hitter friendly, the Red Sox have the pitching staff to survive at home. They signed a fourth veteran, agreeing to a five-year contract with starting pitcher John Lackey, who had been a very dependable ace for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He joins a rotation that was already formidable: Josh Beckett is their ace, with Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield rounding out the staff.
Lackey, Beckett, and Lester will all win more than 14 games and post ERA’s under four. Matsuzaka has been battling a couple of injuries and is coming off a forgettable season. But, he is participating in conditioning drills with the rest of the pitching staff and is confident he will bounce back and succeed this season. He has the repertoire to join Lackey, Beckett, and Lester in the 14-wins-and-above-club, but though he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his Red Sox career, he relies on pinpoint control, which has resulted in predictability and a high walk-rate. Yet, if he can return to his 2008 form, when he won 18 games and posted a 2.90 ERA, Boston’s pitching staff will be dominant.
Buchholz, who pitched very well this past season, will get his fair share of starts. But the 43-year old Wakefield, who is considered to be the odd-man out in the rotation, recently said, “I’ll be one of the five starters,”. This may not be the best move for Boston, considering the emergence of Buchholz, but there is nothing wrong with Wakefield’s confidence.
The rest of the team is equally as confident. And with their team full of dependable veterans, this confidence should translate into success. Success that could strike fear in the Yankees hearts.
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Team Predictions:
95-67, first in the American League East
Hitters (in projected batting order):
LF Jacoby Ellsbury: .310 BA, 13 homers, 65 rbi’s, 185 hits, and 64 steals
2B Dustin Pedroia: ..297 BA, 15 homers, 70 rbi’s, 190 hits, and 20 steals
C Victor Martinez: .300 BA, 24 homers, 100 rbi’s, 175 hits, and 35 doubles
1B Kevin Youkilis: .312 BA, 30 homers, 95 rbi’s, 175 hits, and 44 doubles
DH David Ortiz: .275 BA, 25 homers, 80 rbi’s, 160 hits, and 28 doubles
RF J.D. Drew: .280 BA, 22 homers, 70 rbi’s, 145 hits, and 33 doubles
3B Adrian Beltre: .265 BA, 24 homers, 75 rbi’s, 155 hits, and 25 doubles
CF Mike Cameron: .260 BA, 20 homers, 65 rbi’s, 140 hits, and 27 doubles
SS Marco Scutaro: .270 BA, 13 homers, 55 rbi’s, 160 hits, and 33 doubles
Starting Pitchers:
Josh Beckett: 17-7, 3.55 ERA, and 203 strikeouts
Jon Lester: 16-6, 3.40 ERA, and 220 strikeouts
John Lackey: 17-9, 3.60 ERA, and 145 strikeouts
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 14-9, 4.05 ERA, and 170 strikeouts
Tim Wakefield: 9-7, 3.90 ERA, and 130 strikeouts
Clay Buchholz: 12-6, 3.60 ERA, and 80 strikeouts
Closer:
Jonathan Papelbon: 43 saves and a 2.30 ERA
Wakefield is going to be the odd man out. Provided everyone else stays healthy in camp, look for Wakefield to come down with a “strained back” and be put on the DL. They will then stash him on the DL until either there is an injury, or until Memorial Day, at which time he will bump either Dice K or Buccholz, whoever falters the most. This way they can keep him strong. Remember, he had disc surgery, and this is the last time around for him, so they are going to look to hold him back so he can make it to the finish line and finish strong.
We’ve gone thorough the whole Ellsbury thing, and I would probably flip flop Papi and Nancy Drew in the order.
Also, the Red Sox desperately need to get out to a fast start. Beckett, V-Mart and Drew are all looking for contracts, and not getting one, so if the Red Sox don’t get out of the gate, it will be an unhappy clubhouse to be in.
Coincidentally, or not, the schedule again favors the Red Sox early. The Red Sox start with 13 home games and 10 road games in April, with the benefit of having both the Yankees and the Rays at home and not on the road, with a soft road schedule going to KC, MIN, TOR and BAL.
The Yankees, on the other hand in April only have 7 home games, but 15 games on the road, including opening the season in Boston then going to Tampa, and also going to the West coast and then Baltimore on the back end of the trip.
However, like last year, in the end, the 162 game schedule exposes everyone to be exactly what they are in the end.
Wake’s dreaming if he thinks he’ll make the kind of impact he’s thinking.
The schedule does favor Boston early, but as always, the season will rest upon what happens in August and September.
If the Yankees survive April with a solid record, look out.
Yes, Boston has to start on the right foot. If they struggle this season, which I doubt, it’ll be difficult signing Beckett especially. Looks like V-Mart’s gonna stay, though.
Good to have you back!
As far as your comment that Wake is dreaming, well usually when a ballplayer loses it, he is the last to know.
That is not to say that he can’t be productive, only in shorter stints, and that is why I think they are saving him to the end. Hold him back until the start of summer and just let him empty the tank, and hope he has enough left to make it to the wire.
The Yankees have carried six starters in the past, and you know what, it always seemed to work itself out in the end. Your starting 5 in April are rarely your starting 5 in September.
Look for the Ellsburry deal in 4 weeks, if and when they can get someone to overpay based on need. If they can get a top flight prospect, and by that I mean someone you know is going to be a major league player; someone who you have a crap shoot chance of even panning out to be an All Star, they will pull the trigger.
In that lineup every day, Hermida is going to hit above .280, have over 80 RBIs and hit around 20 HRs, and that is if Riddick doesn’t steal time from him, which he might.
Good to have me back?
Good to have baseball back.
Yeah, there is nothing wrong with having depth at starting pitcher. Realistically, Wake will probably make 15 starts and spend some time in long relief.
You have to have more than five capable starters because, as you say, rotations rarely stay together due to injuries.
Ellsbury is not going to be traded, though they do have two capable replacements (Hermida and Reddick). He’s not going to be traded. Do you want me to say it again?
Yes, it’s good to have you back. And Baseball, too. School’s been nuts, and I haven’t been able to write on here as much as I would like.
I’d like those numbers from Hermida, but currently there is no room for him. He’ll probably get 250-300 at-bats this year, and hit 10-15 bombs with 45-50 rbi’s. But possibly more with Drew’s injury history. And who knows if Cameron’s going to hold up.
The whole Ellsburry thing, if it happens, will happen very fast, and will happen in the last 4 days or so before camp breaks, where some borderline contender says to themselves that he is the leadoff hitter they need to punch their ticket for October, so it is worth it to overpay.
Anytime you can get the other side to overpay, you have to do the deal, especially when it is from an area where you have depth.
Whether or not it actually happens will not be up to the Red Sox, because what they are going to do is sit back and wait for someone to come to them, and then when they do, Epstein will set the bar high, and see if the other guy blinks.
It is a winning strategy, and if he can pull it off, also a winning move.
Sure, if they are blown away, maybe. And sure many teams would love to have him. But I just don’t see it happening. Something could happen, and I understand why you keep bringing this up (Reddick and others waiting in wings), but they need to hold onto their youth.
I don’t know about anyone blowing them away to get Ellsburry, he isn’t Lou Brock, but they can probably get someone to overpay.
As for going with youth, the Red Sox can’t afford a youth movement, not at the prices they charge. That is why all of what they have been doing is to have the payroll flexibility to reload, instead of ever having to rebuild.
In that respect, I am very surprised that they didn’t make any moves other than Lackey, and I don’t think Scutero is a big move.
Other than Youklis and Pedroia, in terms of every day players, they have no other payroll commitments past 2011, with tens of millions coming off the payroll this year.
On the pitching staff, this will be the last year in Boston for Beckett, as they have already replaced him with Lackey, and other than Lackey, you only have one other big commitment to Dice K, and everything else is a team friendly deal.
I still think Price Fielder is a deal that is meant to be.
In the final analysis, the 2010 Red Sox aren’t as good as the 2009 Red Sox, and the 2009 Red Sox weren’t as good as the 2008 Red Sox, and the 2008 Red Sox weren’t as good as the 2007 Red Sox.
The Red Sox aren’t going to make the playoffs. The Red Sox just aren’t at the same level as the Yankees, and they will not contend for the division. They will contend for the wildcard, but I do not see how they can possibly beat out the Rays, who have fixed their bullpen, while the Red sox offense has gone further into decline.
Prince would be a good fit, but it depends on if they want to keep V-Mart. Of course, they could use one of the two at DH, which would make for a very potent lineup. I’m worried about the current state of their offense. Too many question marks, too many hitter that may hit 15-20 homers.
Sorry for the delayed reply. Econ’s been killing me, and I really had to focus on that. It’s even more painful not writing on here at all. I’ll crank out a few articles this week/weekend, then write a lot during the spring break. And of course I’ll cover baseball.