Bay to Mets, but team still needs pitching
Jason Bay takes his home-run hitting stroke to New York, where he will attempt to hit balls out of the Mets spacious park for the next four years.
A few weeks ago, ESPN’s Peter Gammons said Jason Bay would “rather play in Beirut than in New York.” Evidently, he was wrong. Bay signed on with his lone aggressive suitor, the New York Mets, inking a four-year deal worth $66 million dollars with a vesting option that could bring the earnings over $80 million. The Boston Red Sox “remained in touch with Bay to the end”, according to the Boston Herald’s John Tomase, but his last organization didn’t really want him. So, Bay went to a team that did.
The Mets struggled mightily last season, in large part because of injuries. Many of their best players missed a substantial amount of time due to injury. Center-fielder Carlos Beltran played only 81 games, shortstop Jose Reyes played in 36 games, and first baseman Carlos Delgado played in 26 games–three of their top four offensive players.
All three, and the many others that missed a large portion of the season, will be healthy heading into this next year. Factoring this in, and the signing of Bay, the Mets will have one of the better offenses in the major leagues on paper. But, what they gain on offense, they will lose in the pitching department, unless they sign or trade for a few solid arms.
The free-agent market is very thin pitching-wise. Newsday’s Ken Davidoff hopes they remain financially responsible for the remainder of the offseason. If the Mets do watch their spending, this means they would go “nowhere near” Joel Pineiro, who is as of now the best pitcher available. The problem is, the Mets can’t afford not to splurge, to sign what’s left. If they don’t, their pitching staff will continue to struggle.
As of now, they have Johan Santana, one of the best pitchers in the game. That’s it. No one beyond him in the rotation can even be considered dependable. Santana led the team with 13 wins. Mike Pelfrey was the only other starting pitcher to reach double-digits in wins, but he had a 5.03 ERA. The team as a whole had a 4.45 ERA, which wasn’t terrible, but certainly not good enough to compete.
Not only do they need pitching, but they need power. Bay can give them that. But Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, which could hinder his home-run production at the friendly confines. His home-run total is projected to take a 68 percent hit, factoring in the dimensions of Citi Field, which means he is expected to club 10 homers at home, and finished with 30 on the season. Thirty, however, would be 18 more than Daniel Murphy hit to lead the Mets last season.
Bay is an excellent hitter, a slightly above-average defender, and a good clubhouse guy. But though he will provide a boost, it will take a lot more to make the Mets a playoff contender again.
The entire National League is weak.
IF the Mets can get a lucky strike out of a reclamation project like Sheets or Bedard, they are instant playoff contenders.
The Phillies are not as dominant as people think anyway, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Halliday trade didn’t work out in their favor, and I think the reason Hammmels has been having problems is because his elbow is sore from breaking off too many curves, and it has been sore since August 2008, and by continuing to try to pitch through it, he is going to continue to get hammered because they sit on the fastball. At some point they are going to have to just shut him down for 6 months and let him have surgery to clean it out, and it was a mistake for them not to go that route in November.
Right now the National League is so inferior to the top tier of the American League, and in the NL you probably have close to 10 teams that either think they are right there, or that they are only a player away.
You are right, with a little pitching, they are playoff-bound. That is, of course, if their entire lineup doesn’t catch the longterm injury bug again. Sheets and/or Bedard are good targets, and, if healthy, can win 12-15 games apiece.
Yes, the National remains awful. The Phillies have a good offense, but though Halladay is arguably better than Lee, the swap doesn’t really help them that much. They would be instant championship contenders if they retained Lee and still traded for Halladay.
Soon Holiday will sign with St. Louis, and starting next week we get into the period where the good GMs earn their salt.
While there has been allot of talk about how this is a thin market, and it is in the sense that there are only a few top tier guys, but there are still allot of good players out there, second tier guys, and in two weeks the prices stat dropping by the hour, up until the end of the month comes and players and agents are scrambling like they were on the deck of the Titanic after the last of the lifeboats are gone.
There will be several players who will be the 2010 version of Bobby Abreu.
Who is going to be the discount signing that will prove to be the better choice than both Holiday and Bay?
Randy Winn?
Jermaine Dye?
Johnny Damon?
Rick Ankiel???
Someone will emerge.
Holliday’s going to get 7-years and over $120 mil from Cards.
All of the other four will also get multi-year deals. Winn, Dye, and Damon have a lot left, and Ankiel, if given 400-500-plus at-bats, could be a .260 hitters with 30-plus homers.
Though all are great, it’s amazing how little there is after Holliday and Bay. GM’s will earn their money in the coming weeks for sure. And, whoever signs these guys will be happy.
Honestly, I seriously doubt all of those guys are going to get multi-year deals.
I don’t see Winn getting a multi-year deal coming off a down year at his age.
Damon seems to have priced himself out of multiple years, unless he wants to come off of his $13M per year target.
Dye might get 2 years, that is unless Texas can get Vlad to sign a 1 year deal, and if he does, then the big question is where is the market for Dye? NY? Who knows?
I could see Ankiel getting 3 or even 4 years, there might be a team out there who thinks they have a chance of locking in at a reasonable number a young guy with allot of upside, but even still 3 years at $12M could be a risk, because if he isn’t in a winning environment with hitters around him in the lineup, he could wash out.
However, I just don’t see either Bay or Holiday being worth the money they got.
Just like JD Drew, they are complementary players and they got paid like they are core players, and you can count on come August that there will be stories about how you could have bought equal production or better for less than one third of the price.
Also, do you think the Red Sox are really players for Beltre?
I think not.
I don’t think they want him or need him.
I think they could spend allot less and be better served by picking up a catcher who they can start at least 4 times a week and play V-Mart at 1st and Youk at 3rd.
Ramon Castro, Jose Molina, Miguel Olivo, Mike Redmond, and Yorvit Torrealba are all out there, and thy could pick and choose, and take one of those guys for about $3M.
That would enable them to bury Varitek on the bench, or better yet on the disabled list with a phantom injury, which short of Varitek deciding to forget the money and just retire, would probably be the best thing the Red Sox could do.
I still think the Red Sox have a trade out there somewhere to better balance their 25 man roster.
Now that I think about it, I am inclined to agree with all of your predictions, even Ankiel’s. Winn’s age and decline could get in the way of a two-year deal, but because of his veteran presence, I could see a team giving him a second year option.
Dye and Vlad are too similar at this stage of their careers, and there will be only so many teams interested in them. You are right: if Vlad signs w/ Texas, what does that that mean for Dye? His options are certainly limited.
Boston has indeed kept their eyes on Beltre, but I agree, they would be much better off moving VMart to first and Youk to third. Get a offensively capable catcher (Torrealbla), and they are set.