One guard too many: What was Minnesota’s Kahn thinking?
Johnny Flynn and Ricky Rubio in the same rotation for the Minnesota Timberwolves? Is General Manager David Kahn out of his mind?
The Minnesota Timberwolves made the interesting decision to draft two point guards, Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn, with the fifth and sixth overall selections in the 2009 NBA Draft. Their new General Manager David Kahn has taken a lot of heat for this decision, and rightfully so, but since Draft Night, he has tried to explain his reasoning.
He admitted that the team will be bad for the next couple of years (meaning that the Timberwolves have time to groom these two players). Even though this may be true, it shouldn’t be said. Every team in the NBA, and in all sports, expects to win every game they play. If not, there would be no point in showing up.
Just because they are young doesn’t mean that they have to be in transition mode. Subtracting those on their roster that just ride the bench, the Timberwolves average age is 23 years old. To compare, the Portland Trail Blazers, which is amongst the elite in the NBA, have an average age of 24 years old. Youth can win.
The Blazers have a good problem: they have too much youth. The Timberwolves have a similar problem, but in their case it’s the bad kind. Before trading him, Randy Foye, at 6’3″, was considered their shooting guard. Since size wasn’t an issue for Minnesota, why didn’t they take Stephen Curry with one of their back-to-back picks? He led the NCAA in scoring last season, averaging 28 points per game at Davidson, and clearly has a shooter’s mentality. To me, instead of clogging the backcourt with two pass-first point guards, the sensible decision would have been to fill another glaring need.
Kahn may have a chance to redeem himself. Rubio, who I can’t imagine is thrilled about moving from Spain to snowy Minnesota, is drawing interest from multiple teams. One of those teams is the New York Knicks. Head coach Mike D’Antoni could do wonders for Rubio, as he runs the fast-paced offense the young Spaniard would love to orchestrate. General Manager Donnie Walsh, reportedly, is in the works of making this match possible.
Yet, he doesn’t have much that would entice Kahn, who is head over heels for Rubio. David Lee and Nate Robinson are two of their most intriguing players, but there are two problems standing in their way of being part of a deal: First, they can’t be traded unless they are signed first (both are impending free agents; the signing period begins July 1st), and neither would fit with the Timberwolves (they obviously don’t need another point guard, Robinson, nor a power forward, Lee, considering they already have Al Jefferson and Kevin Love holding the fort in their front-court).
Wilson Chandler, New York’s versatile small forward, could catch Kahn’s eye, but he wouldn’t be enough by himself. Kahn certainly wouldn’t want forward Eddie Curry, who the Knicks desperately want to get rid of. He wouldn’t want Danilo Gallinari either, who is coming off back surgery–a bad sign for someone who’s just 20 years old.
Kahn could easily walk away from the Knicks and keep Rubio. Kahn finds Rubio’s game so enticing that he’s willing to allow the guard to play in Spain for the next couple years in order to fine-tune his game. Yet, for instance, by 2011, when Rubio is ready, what happens to Flynn, who will presumably be established by this time?
Rubio and Flynn have entirely different games. Rubio is a wizard passing wise, while Flynn is a fearless scorer. Flynn is an excellent passer as well, but if Kahn thinks he can move Flynn, who is only 6’0″, to shooting guard, he is mistaken. The only way his plan works is if Flynn turns into Allen Iverson, which is highly improbable given the fact that he isn’t a shooter who can create his own shot.
After drafting both guards, Kahn told ESPN’s Ric Bucher that he’s convinced they can co-exist in the same offensive set. This is naive on his part. Though he believes his plan will come to fruition, I think he will figure out that he’s created a mess, and buckle down and trade Rubio. Many teams want him, and though he is salivating over his potential, he can’t pass up a chance to right this wrong. A chance to not only rebuild his shot reputation as a bone-headed, inexperienced front-office power, but to benefit his team rather than add confusion to an otherwise bright future.
Unless Kahn can find another suitor for Rubio, in the end Walsh is going to end out turning the screws on him.
If I were Kahn, I would try to draw Miami into the mix. They are on the east coast and in a major city, both of which are important to Rubio because he wants to market himself in the US and in Europe, and to market himself in Europe, he has to play in the Eastern time zone, because on the west coast, his games will tip a 3 am in Spain. Also Miami naturally has a large Spanish speaking population. Additionally, ownership will part with the money to pay off his team back in Europe.
Kahn should at the very least try to bring them in as a foil to the Knicks, and if Miami really wants to take a swing and try to make a deal, their roster certainly has more to offer.
Short of that, I do not see any other team that would need him, part with what it would take in a trade, would be willing to pay the $6 million, AND would be someplace Rubio is willing to play.
Contrary to how it is depicted by some commentators, European players are no longer of the mindset that they HAVE to play in the NBA. Unlike 15 years ago there is not a huge drop off in the level of competition, so most players aren’t going to say to themselves that they need to go to some mediocre team in a small market to validate themselves professionally. Culturally, they are more comfortable in Europe, the money is better for them now because of the decline of the dollar against the Euro, so they are only willing to come her on their terms.
Both the Knicks and the Magic have lost 1st round draft picks, Fredric Weiss and Fran Vazquez, by taking the mistaken perspective that they can just draft them and they will come because these guys feel they need to play in the NBA to validate themselves professionally.
If Rubio is not in an NBA uniform on opening night, there is a very good chance that he NEVER wears an NBA uniform, and you can just forget the idea that Kahn is going to hold on to his rights until 2011, because he doesn’t have anything to show for the #5 pick by then, he isn’t going to have a job by then.
I would guess to say that Kahn has no more than 30 days to make whatever his play is, and unless Kahn can create a market for the player outside of NY, has loses leverage and options by the day.
That is what is so amazing about this.
It isn’t as if Kahn was trying to roll Isiah Thomas, or any of the other inept GMs that the Knicks have had over the years. Walsh is one of the most widely respected guys in the league.
Instead of making his deal and taking what he could get, and let’s be honest, despite Walsh, because it is NY, he could have gotten above market value and market rate, because the owner would have capitulated somewhat.
Kahn wasn’t satisfied with a good deal, he really wanted to take Walsh to the cleaners, and you can be sure that Kahn was absolutely certain that that he would do so, so much so that he basically burned his two picks at the back end of the round just to keep the other guards away from the Knicks.
Kahn thought he had time on his side, and that he could bluff Walsh out of the game, and that Walsh would just give him the store, and instead Walsh called his hand, and Kahn had absolutely nothing, and instead of just quitting while he was ahead, and taking either the Knicks best offer or a player that played another position, he stubbornly blew up his roster by drafting 4 guards, and basically burned the two picks at the back end of the round in doing so.
For many years I was a headhunter, 4 of which I placed stockbrokers, which were very complex negotiations, sometimes that dragged on for months, usually involving bonuses of 500K or more, the largest of which was 2M.
So I know a little about negotiations.
I have also sold real estate for the past 18 months or so, and I also placed computer programmers for about 6 years, and through that I have also had the opportunity to witness people who have absolutely no idea how to negotiate anything.
People who have no idea how to negotiate, usually not only have unrealistic expectations of their own ability to negotiate, they also usually have no concept of relative value.
Not only do these people NEVER get what they were seeking, most often what happens is that the other party negotiating with them see their grossly unrealistic demands for what they are, an opportunity to go in for the kill.
That is what Walsh is doing now, going in for the kill.
If Kahn is smart, he will just swallow hard, and take what Walsh is offering him.
However, based upon how Kahn has conducted himself, I do not think he is smart.
My guess is that out of pride, Kahn doesn’t make the trade, and then Rubio goes back to play in Europe, and that in 2 years, maybe 3 years tops, Kahn is out of a job.
Walsh wants to bring in someone that could draw Lebron to New York. That is one reason why he wanted Curry so badly.
Hill doesn’t carry that much notoriety, so Walsh would be wise to do everything in his power to get Rubio.
Kahn may stick to his gut, and keep Rubio, but you are right, that could cost him his job. Yet, he could be given three years; Rubio will stay in Europe for two, then he’ll get one year with both in the backcourt. If that fails, he’s gone.
In my mind, I think he’ll figure out the ramifications if Rubio isn’t moved, and make a deal for a player he actually needs.
Yet, though he can somewhat redeem himself and take Walsh’s bait, there is no doubting that he is boneheaded, and ultimately will never last in the NBA.
As far as LeBron goes, I think that ship has sailed.
Now that the Cavs have got Shaq, I think they both stay in Cleveland.
Once they get through this season, they will sign Shaq at a greatly reduced contract and allocate his money elsewhere to get another scorer to put around LeBron.
Going forward, Shaq will be just like Kareem was at the tail end of his career. People were also saying for years that Kareem was done, but when they got Magic, they just kept signing him to a series of 1 year deals, and he basically didn’t even play hard except in the playoffs. He often didn’t even run back on defense in the regular season, so much so that the criticism was so out in the open, they actually made a joke about it in the script when Kareem had a bit part in the movie Airplane.
Shaq will just sign a series of cap friendly contracts with the Cavs after this season because the Cavs will let him jake it in the regular season, like the Lakers did with Kareem, after all they still got Z and Vareijo, and it is an opportunity to cement his legacy by winning a few more titles with LeBron, and doing so will enable him to make up for the lost money in salary with added endorsement money.
Walsh isn’t worried about notoriety. Sure he wanted the PG, but he isn’t going to give Hill away now that he has him.
Unless Kahn can create a market for Rubio by bringing another suitor into the mix, the only place he has to turn to is NY. The only other place I could see Rubio signing is Miami, and that is still only a remote possibility.
Rubio will NEVER sign with Minnesota, not now, not in 2 years, not in 10 years.
That is why this was such a colossally stupid move by Kahn.
Drafting him and then Flynn wasn’t necessarily a dumb move, doing so and then not closing the deal to take what you could get by the time the Knicks selected at the #8 spot, is what was dumb. They would have made out, picked up a draft pick, or two, and STILL gotten the best big guy left on the board after Thabeet.
Instead he overplayed his hand, and then made compounded his stupid mistake by burning the two other picks on guards, just to keep them away from NY, thinking that would force their hand, when all he did was force his own hand.
Time is working against Kahn, not for him, and the longer he waits, the less in return he is going to get.
Kahn claims that Flynn will be a great defender in the NBA…even at 2 guard. I’ll believe that when I see it. It’s also true, Al Jefferson needs an offense that passes inside to him regularly, and Curry is all about keeping the ball in his own hands. And if defensive intensity is important to Kahn, you could certainly see why Stephen Curry was not an option.
I think Kahn drafted Flynn not because he thinks that the 5’11″ Flynn can play the 2, but because he always expected Rubio to balk at playing for any team that actually drafted him. Rubio refused to try-out for Memphis, which is probably the only reason he didn’t go at #2, and said he’d never play for Oklahoma City. What the Wolves have, that Rubio does not, is time. No one’s going to be surprised if the Wolves don’t make the playoffs in the next two years. Kahn has said he isn’t trying to build a playoff team, but a contender.
Drafting Rubio, and waiting him out, could be the first step towards doing that. And drafting Jonny Flynn gives the Wolves just the man to run the offense while they do so.
Kahn also traded the 18th pick, Ty Lawson, for a lottery pick in next year’s draft…was that also a mistake?
I don’t like the draft, but it could work. Flynn is a born point guard, and he’ll be good this year, which is more than you can say about Rubio. (Rubio averaged less than 20 minutes a game in Europe’s much shorter season.) I think Rubio might become a superstar, but not yet. In two years, when his Spanish contract expires (incidentally, he’ll be earning less than $300,000 if he stays in Spain this year), he can pick between costing himself somewhere between $50 and $150 million over the course of his career because he doesn’t want to play in Minnesota, or he can honor his commitment to play where he was drafted.
Or if the Timberwolves decide to trade him THEN, they can deal with whatever team will give them a fortune in starters and draft picks. I don’t trade him now unless it’s for a young, healthy All-Star.
And with Flynn signed, the Wolves don’t really need Rubio, and the Wolves have two years to let him develop the stamina and the muscle mass to play in the NBA. 6’4″ and 180 lbs. isn’t going to get it done.
I agree, Andrew, Flynn is the perfect fit for the Wolves. Rubio, alongside him, is not. Also, I would love to see the Wolves use Flynn at shooting guard…I’m not sure that will be a success.
Flynn is a great floor general who can run an offense, especially an offense with two skilled forwards, Jefferson and Love.
Rubio wants to play in the NBA, but, unless he is traded, I don’t think that will happen this season.
And as to Kahn being under time pressure: Kevin McHale was given 15 years to run things. Unless Kahn burns the house down, there’s no way owner Glen Taylor dumps him in less than 5.
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